For a mixed group of adults, split your total as roughly 10% small, 25% medium, 30% large, 25% extra large and 10% 2XL, then add 5 to 10% in extras. That curve works for most unknown crowds. If you have real sizes from real people, use those instead and add a small buffer. This guide shows how to get from “about 80 people” to an exact size grid you can send to a printer.
TL;DR
- With no size data, start from a bell curve such as 1-2-3-3-1 or 1-2-3-2-1 (S, M, L, XL, 2XL), with medium, large and XL carrying about 75 to 80% of the order.
- With known sizes, count them, add a 5 to 10% buffer, and put the buffer into medium, large and XL.
- Treat unisex, ladies cut, youth and extended sizes as separate lines, each with its own curve.
- Skew a little larger when unsure: a large can cover a medium wearer, but a medium cannot cover an XL.
- Your first order is also data. Record what sells or what gets taken, and tighten the curve next time.
Table of Contents
- Quantity and size split are two different questions
- A baseline size ratio for unknown groups
- How to calculate your size grid
- Adjusting the split for who is wearing it
- Ladies cut, youth and extended sizes
- How many extras to order
- How to collect sizes without chasing people
- Is there a minimum order, and what counts as bulk?
- Our perspective
- Order your shirts with us
- Before you place the order
- FAQ
- Sources
Quantity and size split are two different questions
People search “shirt order quantity” and mean two things. The first is how many shirts in total. The second is how many of each size. Get the first wrong and you run short or overspend. Get the second wrong and you have 30 smalls nobody wants and no XLs for the people who showed up.
Start with the total, because it sets the stakes for everything else.
Setting the total
The right number depends on who receives the shirts and how sure you are that they will show up.
| Situation | How to set the total |
|---|---|
| Team, staff or club roster | Headcount, plus 5 to 10% for new joiners, replacements and damaged pieces |
| Ticketed event | Tickets sold, then decide whether every attendee gets a shirt or only staff and VIPs |
| Free giveaway or conference | Expected attendance times the share you expect to take one, with a higher buffer if shirts are scarce |
| Brand launch or drop | Your honest sell-through guess, kept low enough to survive being wrong |
| Booth or pop-up sales | Expected foot traffic times conversion, then split by size and style |
For a brand, the biggest risk is overbuying. Print methods that work in small runs lower that risk, and we cover that below.
A baseline size ratio for unknown groups
When you do not know anyone’s size, you use a distribution curve. The most common ones are symmetrical bell curves, sometimes nudged toward larger sizes.
Here is a working baseline for an adult unisex order of 100 shirts, built from the 1-2-3-3-1 pattern (the numbers are parts of the total, so 1+2+3+3+1 = 10 parts):
| Size | Parts | Shirts out of 100 |
|---|---|---|
| Small | 1 | 10 |
| Medium | 2 | 20 |
| Large | 3 | 30 |
| XL | 3 | 30 |
| 2XL | 1 | 10 |
Some groups lean on a softer 1-2-3-2-1 curve, which puts about 11% in small, 22% in medium, 33% in large, 22% in XL and 11% in 2XL. Both are fine starting points. Printers and merch sellers publish their own versions, and they cluster tightly: small near 5 to 13%, medium 20 to 30%, large 26 to 35%, XL 20 to 25%, and 2XL and up in the low double digits at most.
If you want a more practical version for a 100-shirt order, this is how we would round it: 10 small, 25 medium, 30 large, 25 XL, 10 2XL. It sits between the two curves and lands on round numbers that are easy to check.
Why curves skew larger
Small is usually the least damaging size to run short on, and large the most. Someone who needs a medium can generally wear a large. Someone who needs an XL cannot wear a medium. So when you are guessing, it is safer to lean one notch up than one notch down.
The real population backs up the idea that a standard chart is only a rough guide. The SizeUSA project, which used 3D body scans of roughly 10,000 U.S. men and women, was launched in part because apparel fit problems were tied to limited information on the size and shape of the U.S. population. Your group is not “average”, and a mixed crowd can look different from a youth hockey club or a software team.
How to calculate your size grid
The math takes five minutes.
- Pick your total. Include the buffer in a separate line, not hidden in the sizes.
- Pick the curve. If sizes are known, skip to step 4.
- Multiply. Total times each size’s percentage, rounded to whole shirts. Adjust the rounding so the numbers add to your total.
- If sizes are known, count each size and divide by the number of people to see your real distribution. Then multiply those percentages by your planned order if you are ordering a few more than the headcount.
- Round up in the middle. Put leftover shirts in medium, large or XL, not in the ends of the range.
A worked example: 75 shirts for a staff and community event
The event has about 65 expected people plus staff, so you plan for 75 shirts including a buffer of roughly 15%.
| Size | Share | Shirts |
|---|---|---|
| Small | 10% | 8 |
| Medium | 25% | 19 |
| Large | 30% | 22 |
| XL | 25% | 19 |
| 2XL | 10% | 7 |
| Total | 100% | 75 |
That is 8 + 19 + 22 + 19 + 7 = 75. Notice the rounding went toward medium and XL rather than the extremes. If you later learn that the group is mostly women, shift weight toward small and medium and add a ladies cut. More on that below.
Adjusting the split for who is wearing it
A generic curve is the fallback. Any real information about the group beats it.
Teams and clubs
Rosters give you real measurements. Ask each player for a size, order those sizes exactly, and add a few spares for new members. Athletic cuts often run slimmer than a standard tee, so have players try a sample if you can.
Events and festivals
For event merch, the audience shapes the curve. A music night draws a different mix than a charity 5K. Event organizers selling merch often find one or two sizes sell out first. If you run recurring events, a two-sample approach to unisex sizing is a handy way to decide which cut feels right before you commit to a curve for the whole run.
Brands and boutiques
For a retail line, your customer defines the curve. A streetwear brand with an oversized fit may sell more mediums than the chart suggests, because people size down. A brand aimed at women will skew small and medium. Your first drop is a test: record how each size sells and use that on the second. Sell-through by size, units sold divided by units received, is the number to track. One caution: if a size sold out early, your data understates demand for it, so do not treat “sold 20” as “wanted 20”.
Corporate and giveaway orders
Companies often order far too many smalls and too few of the bigger sizes because they picture an average person. If shirts are optional giveaways, put more into large and XL than you think, since the people who take a shirt tend to be the ones who know it will fit.
Ladies cut, youth and extended sizes
Do not blend these into one curve. Each is a separate product with its own sizing, and mixing them gives you a grid that fits nobody well.
- Unisex and ladies cut. A ladies cut is shaped differently, and a ladies medium does not equal a unisex medium. If your group is mixed, give women a choice and order a ladies line in proportion to how many will want it. Many women will happily wear unisex, so do not over-order the fitted style.
- Youth. Youth sizes only matter if kids are actually attending or on the roster. Count them: ask for ages or youth sizes directly. Do not add youth “just in case” to an adult order unless you know children will be there.
- Extended sizes (3XL and up). These are small in share, often 1 to 3% of a general order, but missing them excludes people entirely. If you do not know your group, include a few. If you have roster data showing none, skip them.
A clean way to handle this is to build the order as separate lines: adult unisex, ladies, youth, extended. Run the calculation on each. Add up the lines for your final total.
If you want a quick reference for how a shirt measures flat, measuring a t-shirt for a reliable fit walks through taking chest and length measurements, which helps when someone is between sizes.
How many extras to order
Extras cover last-minute sign-ups, damaged or misprinted pieces, exchanges and staff. Published event calculators suggest about 5 to 10% overall, 10 to 15% for groups under 50, and 3 to 5% for 500 or more. The pattern makes sense: small groups have higher percentage swings from a single late joiner, and large groups average out.
Put the extras where demand is highest: medium, large and XL. A handful of spare smalls and 2XLs is enough.
How to collect sizes without chasing people
This is where most small orders fall apart. The method matters less than having a hard deadline.
- Use a form, not a group chat. A simple form with name, size, style (unisex, ladies, youth) and a size chart link gives you clean data. Group chats lose replies.
- Show the chart. Include chest width and length measurements so people do not guess. If your shirts run oversized or slim, say so.
- Set one deadline. State the date that sizes lock, and that late requests may not be available.
- Offer a sample. For larger groups, passing around one or two sizes helps people choose between neighbors.
- Count, then add the buffer. Tally each size, add your extras, and only then send the grid.
When you cannot collect sizes, as with a giveaway crowd, fall back on the curve above.
Is there a minimum order, and what counts as bulk?
There is no single standard for what counts as a “bulk” order of shirts. It varies by printer and method. Screen printing carries setup costs for each color, so the price per shirt drops as quantity goes up. Digital methods such as DTG and DTF do not need screens, so they handle small runs far better.
That changes how you plan the size split. With a high-minimum method, you commit to the full grid up front and a wrong guess is expensive. With a low-minimum method, you can order a tighter first run, see what moves, and reorder the sizes that sold. If you are a new brand, read our guide on what no minimum order means for small clothing brands and how to scale a brand with print on demand.
Print method also affects the choice you make before the size grid. We cover costs on our DTG pricing and embroidery pricing pages, so you can check the numbers for your quantity.
Our perspective
We print in Downtown Los Angeles for independent brands, designers, teams and event organizers, and the same mistake shows up again and again: people treat the size split as a formality and the design as the real decision. It is the other way around. A great print on a size nobody can wear sits in a box.
Our advice is to match the method to how sure you are. If you know your sizes, order them exactly. If you are guessing, keep the first run smaller and use a method that lets you go back for more. That is a big reason we offer no minimums on blanks and fast turnaround, including same-day or next-day options for urgent jobs: you should be able to correct a wrong guess, not live with it.
Two habits pay off every time. First, write your size grid down and keep it, along with what actually happened. Second, when a size sells out, treat it as a sign of demand, then reorder with a heavier curve. A shirt order is a conversation with your customers, and the second order should be smarter than the first.
— Christian
Order your shirts with us
If you have a size grid ready, we can print it. Tekton LA handles DTG, DTF, screen printing, embroidery, embossing, woven labels and private label work, all produced in Los Angeles. You can start from blanks with no minimum order quantity and add decoration to match your split.
Browse the full range of services at Tekton LA, or look at a ready-to-print option like our unisex crewneck fleece or Major T-shirt. On a deadline? Our guide to last-minute event apparel printing explains how to move quickly.
Before you place the order
A short checklist saves you from the common errors:
- Is the total based on confirmed people, or a guess? Label it.
- Are unisex, ladies, youth and extended sizes separate lines?
- Did the extras go into medium, large and XL?
- Did you check print placement for each size? A left chest logo and a back print sit differently on a small than a 2XL, so see our left chest print size guide, back print size charts and t-shirt print placement measurements.
- Will you have the shirts in time? Read how to order custom event merch with fast turnaround.
FAQ
What is the most common size ratio for t-shirts?
There is no single standard, but bell curves such as 1-2-3-3-1 or 1-2-3-2-1 (small to 2XL) are the most common starting points. They put most shirts into medium, large and XL. Use them only when you do not know your group’s sizes.
How many extra shirts should I order?
Plan on roughly 5 to 10% extra for most orders. Small groups under 50 may need 10 to 15%, while very large events can often get by with 3 to 5%. Put the extras into medium, large and XL.
How many shirts count as a bulk order?
There is no universal cutoff, since it depends on the printer and the print method. Screen printing rewards larger runs because of setup costs, while DTG and DTF work well at small quantities. Ask your printer where the price breaks fall for your method.
Should I order more large sizes than small?
Usually yes. A large can cover someone who needs a medium, but a medium cannot cover an XL. When your information is thin, lean one size larger.
Do I need separate sizes for women and kids?
If women or children will wear the shirts, yes. Order ladies cut and youth sizes as separate lines, sized from the people who will actually wear them, rather than adding them as a percentage of the adult order.
Sources
- SizeUSA research on U.S. body size and apparel fit (Newcomb and Istook)
- Event T-shirt quantity calculator and buffer guidance (UD5)